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Read about Hispanic Voters at Newsweek. |
It's been a week to savor for immigrant advocates. First, there was the news that Lou Dobbs, with his nostril-flaring rants against illegal immigration, was departing CNN. Then there was Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano's speech at the Center for American Progress today, in which she declared in no uncertain terms that the administration was intent on pursuing comprehensive immigration reform in early 2010.
Over at the Plum Line, Greg Sargent notes something I've been thinking, and meaning to blog about for weeks, namely that the Virginia governor's race is not a referendum on the president. As much as pundits want to draw national conclusions for an off-cycle race like this one—political reporters, myself included, can't resist the allure of "what does it all mean?" analysis—the Virginia race doesn't tell us all that much about the presidency. Sargent looks closely at the numbers from a recent Washington Post poll , and finds the following:
Immigration is coming back as an issue. And supporters of immigration say they are learning from their last defeat.
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Republican policies, particularly on immigration. A survey by the Pew Hispanic Center last year found 65 percent of registered Latino voters leaning toward the Democrats and only 26 percent to the Republicans; it was the largest partisan gap reported in the past
Newt Gingrich and Tom Tancredo created a backlash that Senate Republicans are still trying to dig their way out of with Hispanic voters and women without offending the party's Southern-white-male base. "This isn't target practice," says a GOP source
class—could be Orange County Republicans were it not for the immigration issue. It's likely that the proliferation of Hispanic voters will lead the GOP to moderate its stance, lest it become irrelevant in the West. This is a scenario that will no doubt
the Internet, or Republican missteps like social conservatives alienating moderates or the immigration issue alienating Latino voters . All these may be true, but are only marginal reasons. The real tide has been turned on the ground through the actions
Anglos will vote Democratic, and that that will be the engine of change. Trouble is, in Texas, as across the country, the Hispanic vote is no more monolithically Democratic than the Anglo vote. Bush and his Republican successor, Rick Perry, have regularly won
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